1988年澜沧、耿马大震的预报和再认识  

PREDICTION AND RE-CONSIDERATION FOR THE GREAT LANCANG-GENGMA EARTHQUAKE OF 1988

作　　者：石绍先[1] 付虹[1] 沈斌[1] 尤传侠 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局

出　　处：《西北地震学报》1991年第1期35-40,共6页Northwestern Seismological Journal

摘　　要：本文介绍了作者在1988年11月6日澜沧、耿马大震前进行中、短临阶段预报及大震现场预报的主要思路、方法和依据。中期预报的主要依据是:地震活动特征、大震的47年重现周期和应变能的积累;短临预报的主要依据是:滇西南地震活动中心的动态演变、M_L≥5.0级地震震中定向迁移及地震活动过程。大震后现场跟踪预报和最大强余震震级判别主要用了∑√E—lgt和b值截距法。最后本文对预报情况进行了总结和重新认识。In this paper, the scientific thinking, method and reason of the medium- and short-term earthquake prediction and the forecast on the spot before and after the Lancang earthquake with M=7.6 and the Gengma earthquake with M=7.2, which occurred on Nov. 6, 1988, have been objectively expounded. The main reason of the medium-term prediction includes the basic seismieity characteristics, the 47-year recurrence period of great earthquake and the accumulated strain energy. The main criteria of the short-term prediction embrace the dynamic deduction of seismicity centers in the southwestern Yunnan, the direction shifting track of epicenters of earthquakes with M≥5.0 and the analysis of seismicity process. ΣE^(1/2)-lgt and b-value intercept method is effective methods determining and predicting the largest aftershock on the spot, Finally, this paper sums up and reconsiders the prediction.

关 键 词：地震 预报 澜沧-耿马 动态演变 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]