中国总需求函数及其货币政策含义  

China's AD Function and Its Implication for Monetary Policy

作　　者：郑超愚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《金融研究》2002年第5期39-46,共8页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：本文依据利率管制制度下IS IM模型的配额均衡推导出中国总需求函数Y =D(M/P ,R) ,蕴涵仅货币政策有效而财政政策完全无效的需求管理政策含义。为评价中国货币政策的经济稳定效应 ,本文运用货币政策效应测度的特定指标体系和算法程序 ,事后考察1 981年以来中国货币供应与国民收入的历时动态及其协同运动性质 ,有关类型化解释结果表明其间中国货币政策未能实施有效的反周期名义货币供应管理操作 ,而基于货币政策规则的货币供应目标比较也揭示了 1 998- 2 0 0 0年间中国货币政策的紧缩倾向。Based on the rationed equilibrium of IS-LM model under interest regulating, the paper proposes China's aggregate demand function in Monetarian style, implying the only monetary policy matters and fiscal policy is important. The respective dynamics and mutual synchronism of China's money supply and national income are investigated to estimate ex post the stabilization effects of monetary policy from 1981 to 2000. The paper also calculates the appropriate targets of Monetarian, Keynesian and New Classical monetary policy rules for China's nominal money supply since 1998, when China's economy is trapped in deflation, to reveal the contractionary propensity of monetary policy.

关 键 词：IS-IM模型 总需求函数 货币政策 中国 利率 菲利普斯曲线 通货膨胀预期 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]