一个适于新疆河流日径流预测的实时预报模型  

A Real-time Daily Runoff Hydrograph Forecasting Model for the Rivers in Xinjiang

作　　者：刘志辉[1] 张国威[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学地理系

出　　处：《新疆大学学报（自然科学版）》1991年第3期94-100,共7页Journal of Xinjiang University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：本文基于ARMA(p,q)模型和非平稳时序分析的乘法模型,并考虑到气温和降水对径流的影响作用,提出了一个适用于干旱区、半干旱区水文和气象资料缺乏的乌鲁木齐河1984～1988年日径流过程的连续模拟和预报中,取得了良好的结果,可用于实际作业和预报。Based on the ARMA (p, q) model of non-stationary time series analysis, a self-adapting amendment forecasting model is derived for the real-time forecasting of daily runoff hydrograph in the rivers located in arid or semi-arid areas and lack of hydrologic and meteorological data with the constideration of effects of temperature and precipitaton on runoff. This model has been used on the Manasriver in Xinjiang for the continuous simulation of daoiy runoff hydrograph from1984 to 1988 with satisfation, and is proved to be practicable.

关 键 词：日径流 河流 新疆 实时预报模型 

分 类 号：P343.1[天文地球—水文科学]