热带气旋移速的预报  

Study on Forecast of Movement Speed of the Tropical Cyclone

作　　者：陈淑琴 黄辉 李晓丽 

机构地区：[1]浙江省舟山市气象台,舟山316004

出　　处：《气象》2002年第2期42-45,共4页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：主要用统计方法分析热带气旋本身的要素 (位置、近中心最低气压、移速等 )与热带气旋移速的相关性 ,用前期的中心气压、位置、移速等作为因子并结合热带气旋数值预报产品建立移速预报的逐步回归方程。Statistical methods are mainly applied to the analysis on the factors of the tropical cyclone itself, such as location, lowest pressure near center, speed of movement etc., so as to study their correlation with the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone. And with the predictors of previous central pressure, latitude,longitude,speed of movement,productions of numerical forecast of tropical cyclone and so on,stepwise regression equations are established for the speed forecast.

关 键 词：热带气旋 移速 预报 集对分析 数值预报产品 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]