地震活动参数似然比检验研究  

TEST OF THE LIKELIHOOD RATIO OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY PARAMETERS

作　　者：龚平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震研究所,武汉430071

出　　处：《地震地质》2002年第2期278-287,共10页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：科技部公益性项目 (2 0 0 1DIB2 0 118)

摘　　要：在地震活动性参数估计中 ,对同一地区具有相同地震资料和相同统计方法的情况下 ,活动性参数会出现因人而异的估计结果。为了对这些参数的不同估计做出评价 ,文中从统计角度将似然比检验引入到地震活动性参数的不同估计的选优排序决策中 ,分析了似然比检验的基本特征 ,并以华北地区为例示范性地分析了似然比检验对地震活动性参数的决策性检验。The estimation of the parameters of seismic activity is very critical for earthquake prediction, engineering seismic hazard analysis and earthquake damage evaluation. However, different researchers may get different results in this estimation, even though for the same seismic data in the same region by using the same analyzing method. Obviously, the different results of estimation will affect seriously the results of earthquake prediction, engineering seismic hazard analysis and earthquake damage evaluation. A question arises: how to evaluate properly these different estimation results? In this paper, an evaluating method, the likelihood ratio testing is introduced. The basic theoretical features of likelihood ratio testing are discussed statistically, and especially the evaluating and processing methods of likelihood ratio testing for two data sets are demonstrated in detail. For an example, the method is practically used to evaluate seismic activity parameters in North China. The concrete procedures are as follows: Assuming that there are three different division schemes for the seismic activity in North China. The first scheme is adopted from the study by Gao Weiming (1990), in which the seismic activity of North China is divided into 4 active periods since the existence of historic record of earthquake. The seismic data from 15th century till now are relatively complete, so that two seismically active periods can be identified for this period of time. In this scheme, the seismically active period is subdivided into quiet and active sub periods. Assuming that the second scheme is similar to the first scheme in the division of the third and fourth seismically active periods, but does not subdivide these periods into sub periods. Assuming that the third scheme considers the third and fourth periods as a single period and no subdivision is made. Then the three different schemes will get different estimation results of seismic activity parameters for this region, and these different estimations will lead to d

关 键 词：地震活动性参数 似然比检验 华北地区 地震资料 统计方法 

分 类 号：P315.08[天文地球—地震学]