21世纪中国大陆第一个大震活动幕的预测  

Prediction to the First Curtain of Seismic Activity in China's Mainland during 2lst Century

作　　者：胡辉[1] 王锐[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台云南天文台,云南昆明650011

出　　处：《云南天文台台刊》2002年第2期65-69,共5页Publications of the Yunnan Observatoty

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目 ( 1 99730 1 1 )

摘　　要：基于对 2 0世纪中国大陆 7.0级以上大地震与月亮白赤交角的变化和太阳活动的研究结果 ,根据对未来 50a (年 )月亮白赤交角的值与目前太阳活动的形势 ,提出 2 1世纪中国大陆第一个大地震活动幕可能是 2 0 0 6或 2 0 0 7～ 2 0 1The research results on the relationship between the earthquakes over 7.0 in 20th century in China's Mainland, change of the inclination between the lunar path and the Equator,and the solar activity indicate: 1. the earthquakes over 7.0 in China's Mainland will be clustered in the time when the inclination between the lunar path and Equator changes from the maximum to the minimum; 2. the earthquakes will also be clustered in the even number cycles of solar activity. According to results above, based on the values of the inclination between the lunar path and the Equator,and solar activities for future 50 years the conclution is that the first curtain of the seismic activity in 21st century in China's Mainland would be from 2006 or 2007 to 2015.

关 键 词：21世纪 中国大陆 白赤交角 太阳活动 地震活动幕 天文因素 

分 类 号：P315.1[天文地球—地震学] P183.5[天文地球—固体地球物理学]