上海热浪与健康监测预警系统  

SHANGHAI HEAT WAVE/HEALTH WARNING SYSTEM

作　　者：谈建国[1] 殷鹤宝[1] 林松柏[2] L.S.Kalkstein 黄家鑫[1] 邵德民[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市气象科学研究所,上海200030 [2]上海市疾病预防控制中心,上海200031 [3]美国特拉华大学地理系

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2002年第3期356-363,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：WMO/WHO国际示范项目"上海热浪与健康监测预警系统"提供资助

摘　　要：用 1 98 9～ 1 998年上海逐日 4次气象观测资料 ,应用美国特拉华大学的SSC天气分类方法确定逐日天气类型 ,形成了 1 0年逐日天气类型日历。并通过天气类型与死亡率的对比分析 ,确定MT +类型是上海地区形成热浪的“侵人型”气团 ,是具有最高死亡率的天气类型。采用逐步回归方法建立了MT +类型下因受热浪侵袭而超正常死亡数的回归方程。在此基础上建立了上海热浪与健康监测预警系统。通过 1 999年气象和死亡实况资料检验 。The Shanghai heat wave/health warning system is introduced. The Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) is used as the methodology for determination of the air mass classification using the daily meteorological observation data (1989-1998) in the system, and the ten-year-long air mass calendars is established. Through the comparative analysis of the daily air masses and their corresponding mortality, the MT+-pattern air mass is identified as the 'offensive' air mass, which is related with the high mortality in heat wave periods in Shanghai. The equation was also produced for the prediction of excessive death by step-wise regression. The system test with actual meteorological data and mortality data in 1999 indicates that the Shanghai Heat/Health warning system has the good capability of warning excessive heat-related deaths.

关 键 词：热浪 监测预警 SSC天气分类 健康 上海 死亡率 气象资料 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]