加卸载响应比理论在华南地区中强震预测中的应用  

Application of Load-unload Response Ratio Theory to the prediction of moderate-strong earthquake in South China area

作　　者：刘特培[1] 王莉娅[1] 潘海生[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省地震局,广东广州510070

出　　处：《华南地震》2002年第2期38-42,共5页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：用加卸载响应比理论对华南地区 12例中强以上地震进行研究 ,结果表明有 8例在震前响应比值有明显的高值 (Y≥ 2 0 )异常显示 ,通过对响应比值随时间变化特征的分析发现 ,响应比对 5级左右地震有较好的中短期预测效果 。The variation characteristics of the load-unload response ratio before 12 earthquakes with M S≥4 2 in South China area are studied by using the Load-unload Response Ratio Theory.The results show that before 9 earthquakes, there are obvious response ratio anomaly with the value γ≥4 2.Based on the analysis of the characteristic of load-unload response ratio, this Load-unload Response Ratio Method is proved effective in prediction of moderated-strong earthquake M5 0, and it can be as a new prediction method in South China area.

关 键 词：加卸载响应比理论 地震预测 华南地区 地壳结构 孕震体 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]