环境剪应力场动态变化在施甸地震中短期预测中的应用  

The Application of Dynamic Variation in Environmental Shear Stress Field to Medium and Short Term Prediction of the Shidian Earthquake

作　　者：王绍晋[1] 秦嘉政[1] 黄毓珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650041

出　　处：《地震研究》2002年第3期233-239,共7页Journal of Seismological Research

基　　金：云南省科技厅科技攻关项目 (2 0 0 1NG46)

摘　　要：环境应力场是一个随时间和空间变化的动态场 ,追踪分析环境剪应力场时空动态调整变化 ,是强震危险性中、短期预测的有效途径之一。对追踪分析云南及邻区环境剪应力场年变化 ,2 0 0 1年 4月 12日施甸 5 9级地震的中期预测 ,以及追踪分析云南及邻区环境剪应力场月变化对该地震的短期预测实践作了论述。The environmental shear stress field is a dynamic field varying with time and space.Tracing and analyzing space-time dynamic variation in environmental shear stress field is one of the effective ways to predict medium and short term strong seismic risk.This paper discusses annual and monthly variations in environmental shear field in Yunnan and its surrounding areas used in medium and short term prediction of the M 5 9 Shidian earthquake on April 12,2001.

关 键 词：施甸地震 环境剪应力场 地震中短期预测 月变化 年变化 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]