工程项目风险的多维功效函数评价方法研究  

The Multi-dimension Contribution Function Evaluation for Construction Project Risk

作　　者：张建设[1] 钟登华[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《洛阳大学学报》2002年第2期48-53,共6页Journal of Luoyang University

基　　金：高等学校骨干教师资助计划;天津市自然科学基金资助项目

摘　　要：在回顾风险评价概率方法和模糊逻辑方法优缺点的基础上 ,将风险因素特征的多维性 ,即风险概率、风险损失、可预测性、可控制性及可分担性 ,纳入了风险分析过程 ,提出了风险因素的多维特征向量描述概念 .然后建立了风险因素评价的多维功效函数评价准则 ,能对具有多维特征的风险因素进行风险度评价 .根据多维功效函数评价准则对风险因素的风险度排序 ,能使风险管理者从管理全局的角度认识风险、管理风险 ,促进积极风险响应措施的建立和实施 .This paper reviews the various measurements of project risks such as probability method and fuzzy logical method.The advantages and disadvantages are revealed by comparing these methods concerning with their accuracy,data availability,application obstacles, etc. A new risk vector descriptive concept,multi dimension attributes of risk, is presented.These attributes include the possibility of risk,the loss of risk,the predictability,the controllability and the transferability of risk.A risk evaluation criterion is set up with risk multi dimension contribution function.The whole methodology is applied to a real project,and its effectiveness in project risk analysis is demonstrated.

关 键 词：多信功效函数评价方法 工程项目 风险评价 风险因素 风险度 风险概率 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济] F224.7