唐家河大熊猫种群生存力分析  

A Analysis on Population Viability for Giant Panda in Tangjiahe

作　　者：张泽钧[1] 胡锦矗[1] 吴华[1] 侯万儒[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川师范学院珍稀动植物研究所,南充637002

出　　处：《生态学报》2002年第7期990-998,共9页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目 ( 30 1 70 1 4 8)

摘　　要：唐家河大熊猫是一个包括 3个亚种群的异质种群。借助于漩涡模型 ( vortex8.2 1 ) ,对唐家河大熊猫未来 1 0 0 a内的种群动态进行了模拟 ,并分析了不同因子对该种群命运的影响。结果表明 ,在不考虑近亲繁殖、灾害等因素的情况下 ,该种群 1 0 0 a内在总体上保持稳定 ,并略有增长 ,但种群基因杂合率下降 ,累积绝灭率增加 ,尤以落衣沟亚种群为最。提高环境容纳量、补充外来个体等措施能在不同程度上有利于该种群的长期存活 ,而近亲繁殖、灾害等因素则大大加速了种群的灭绝步伐。另外 ,成功的迁移扩散有利于异质种群的稳定与发展 ,否则对数量稀少的大熊猫种群有害无益。最后提出了针对性的保护与管理建议。Life table analyses, which are based on population age-structure, can yield average long-term projections of population growth or decline, but can't reveal the fluctuation in population size that results from stochastic perturbations. The stochastic perturbations can be classified into four kinds: demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, natural catastrophes and genetic stochasticity. When a population is small and isolated from other populations, which belong to the same species, these random fluctuations can lead to extinction even though populations have positive population growth on average. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a quickly developing tool for evaluating the probability of extinction and loss of variation on populations. It also provides a quantitative summary of the conservation status of populations and permits evaluation of the effects of different management recommendations on long-term survival of the population. Up to now, population viability analysis has become a central issue of conservation biology. Of all the tools and techniques of population viability analysis, Vortex model, as a computer simulation tool for wildlife population viability assessment, has been used extensively on some endangered species management and conservation.The giant panda is a rare and native animal of China. Now it only can be found in Sichuan, Gansu and Shaanxi provinces of China and with a population number of about 1000. It has been endangered because of habitat fragmentation, bamboo die-off, diseases and environmental variation and so on. Today it is listed as Category I species in the National Protected Animal List in China and also listed by Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) as Appendix I species. Up to now, more than thirty natural reserves have been established for the giant panda by the government of China, including Tangjiahe Natural Reserve.Tangjiahe Natural Reserve is located in Minshan Mountains, which are the primary homeland of the giant panda in C

关 键 词：大熊猫 种群生存力分析 异质种群 亚种群 唐家河保护区 

分 类 号：Q959.8[生物学—动物学]