上游水电站初期导流条件下下游水电站施工导流风险分析  

Downstream Hydropower Station Risk Analysis for Construction Diversion under Initial Stage Diversion of Upstream Hydropower Station

作　　者：张超[1,2] 胡志根[2] 李家亮[1] 付峥[1] 何兴勇[1] 雷运华[1] 梁娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水电顾问集团成都勘测设计研究院,四川成都610072 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2014年第6期120-123,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51079115;10902078)

摘　　要：上游水电工程初期导流围堰库容较大时,其调蓄削峰作用改变了施工洪水过程的天然属性。基于"大库-小库"梯级导流系统的独特性,建立上游水电站初期导流条件下施工导流风险数学模型。综合考虑施工洪水过程、水位库容、泄流能力不确定性,采用变倍比放大法模拟施工洪水过程,利用Monte-Carlo方法耦合各风险要素估计下游水电站施工导流风险。以西南地区某流域梯级水电工程为例,分析结果表明,风险模型及计算方法是有效的、适用的,并通过敏感性分析量化了各随机参数对导流风险的影响程度,为梯级导流方案的优化设计及风险决策提供了重要依据。When the storage capacity of initial stage diversion cofferdam is large enough, the regulating and shaving peak function change the natural attributes of construction flood process. Based on the characteristics of ＂large reservoirsmall reservoir＂ cascade diversion system, the risk analysis model of construction diversion under initial stage diversion of the upstream hydropower station has been established. Considering the uncertainty of construction flood process, water storage capacity, discharge capacity, varied ratio amplification method is used to simulate construction flood process, and Monte-Carlo method is adopted to estimate the construction diversion risk of downstream hydropower station by coupling risk factors. Taking cascade hydropower project in southwest river basin for an example, the results show that the risk model and calculation method are applicable and effective; the influence of random parameters on diversion risk is quantified with sensitivity analysis. Therefore, it provides important basis for optimization design and risk decision-making of cascade diversion scheme.

关 键 词：初期导流 风险分析 梯级导流 MONTE-CARLO方法 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TV551.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]