近50年黄河流域气温变化特征及背景分析  

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Temperature and the Cause Analyses in the Yellow River Valley during Recent 50 Years

作　　者：潘攀[1] 祝亚丽[2] 王纪军[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省气候中心,郑州450003 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2014年第4期477-485,共9页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项CCSF2011-1;国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2010CB950304;国家自然科学基金青年基金项目41205054;41105073

摘　　要：利用1961-2010年黄河流域142个气象观测站的资料，详细分析了近50年黄河流域气温的时空分布和变化特征。黄河流域四季平均气温均呈现东部高、西部低、南部高、北部低的空间型态。对流域气温进行经验正交分解，第一模态呈现全流域一致的增温形势，上游增温幅度最大[0．40℃（10a）^-1]；第二模态表现为东西部反相变化；第三模态为南北部反相变化。四季气温随时间变化均呈现上升趋势，升温幅度冬季最大[0．52℃（10a）^-1]，其次是春季[0．30℃（10a）^-1]、秋季[0．26℃（10a）^-1]、夏季[0．14℃（10a）^-1]。进一步分析表明，近50年来，黄河流域的气温增暖除了全球变暖的影响，可能还来自1980年代中期和1990年代后期两次年代际增暖的贡献，这与东亚季风的两次年代际变化时间节点是一致的。Spatial-temporal variations of temperature in the Yellow River valley were detailedly analysed by using 142 station observation data from 1961 to 2010. With respect to spatial distribution, the temperature increases from west to east and from north to south. Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals that the principal EOF mode is a consistent warming over the whole valley, with the strongest warming in the upper reaches of the Yellow River [0.40℃（10a）^-1]. Secondly, the EOF mode shows opposite variations in the eastern and western regions. Thirdly, it shows opposite variations in the southern and northern regions. The warming rate is the highest in winter [0.52℃（10a）^-1], and then spring [0.30℃（10a）^-1） 1], autumn [0.26℃（10a）^-1], and summer [0.14℃（10a）^-1]. Further analysis reveals that, in addition to the global warming impact, the warming in the Yellow River valley during recent 50 years can be attributed to large-scale interdecadal warming in the mid-1980s and the late 1990s. These two interdecadal warming events occurred synchronously with the interdecadal shifts of the East Asian monsoon.

关 键 词：黄河流域 气温 气候变化 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]