WRF与MM5在印度洋海域业务化预报结果的对比分析  

Comparative study on the operational numerical prediction results from WRF and MM5 in the Indian Ocean

作　　者：吴萌萌[1,2] 万莉颖[1,2] 刘克威[1] 蔡夕方[3] 邢建勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081 [2]国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京100081 [3]海军海洋水文气象中心,北京100073

出　　处：《海洋预报》2014年第3期66-71,共6页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：海洋公益性行业科研专项(201005033);"十二五"科技支撑重点项目(2011BAC03B01);国家自然科学基金委员会青年基金(41006016)

摘　　要：国家海洋环境预报中心基于MM5模式及WRF模式构建了两套印度洋海域数值预报系统。文中利用这两套系统2012年1月一12月期间的业务化数值预报结果,结合亚丁湾海域两个随船观测站点的观测资料,对亚丁湾海域进行了预报与观测的对比分析;并收集了世界气象组织(WMO)全球气象通信系统(GTS)2012年海洋大气观测资料,对印度洋海域的业务化预报结果进行了检验。结果表明:WRF模式与MM5模式均能很好的对海面风场、温度场和气压场进行预报,WRF模式在风速预报上较MM5模式没有明显改进,但对气温、气压和风向的预报准确性都有所提高;WRF模式风场34h、58h、82h预报与10h预报的差异较MM5模式都有所缩小,说明WRF模式对长时段风场预报的准确度优于MM5模式。Based on the fifth-generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model （MM5） and the Weather Research and Forecast model （WRF）, two numerical prediction systems for the Indian Ocean were established by National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center （NMEFC）. The results from two operational numerical prediction systems in 2012 were compared with the observation data derived from two dispatch observation sites in the Aden Gulf. Meanwhile, the prediction results were validated by the observational data from global meteorological tele- communication system （GTS） of the World Meteorological Organization （WMO）. The results show that both the WRF and the MM5 have a good performance in the prediction of wind, temperature and atmospheric pressure at the sea surface. The WRF is better than the MM5 in predicting temperature, atmospheric pressure and wind direction. However, the wind speed from the WRF is worse than that from the MMS. The WRF model is more accurate in the prediction of long period wind field because the difference between 34h/58h/82h prediction and 10h prediction of wind field from the WRF is less than that from the MMS.

关 键 词：MM5模式 WRF模式 亚丁湾海域 GTS资料 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学]