江苏—南黄海地区M≥6强震有序网络结构及其预测研究  

Ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes and its prediction in Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region

作　　者：门可佩[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学数学与统计学院,南京210044

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第3期268-274,共7页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

摘　　要：江苏-南黄海地区是我国东部地震重点监视防御区之一，自1846年以来，该研究区M≥6强震活动具有显著的可公度性和有序性，其主要有序值为74～75 a、57～58 a、11～12 a和5～6 a，其中74～75 a和57～58 a具有突出的预测作用。根据翁文波信息预测理论，构建了该研究区全区和南黄海海域M≥6强震的二维和三维有序网络结构，据此分析讨论了该区地震活动的分期，并对未来M≥6强震趋势进行了预测。研究结论表明：该区从1998年起进入新一轮平静幕，此幕可能持续到2042年前后；该区下次活跃幕的首次M≥6强震可能发生在2053年前后，地点很可能在南黄海海域内；未来第2次、第3次M≥6强震或强震群可能分别发生在2058、2070年前后。The Jiangsu-South Yellow Sea region is one of the key seismic monitoring＆defence areas in the eastern part of China.Since 1846,M≥6 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in this region.The main orderly values are 74-75 a,57-58 a,11-12 a and 5-6 a,wherein 74-75 a and 57-58 a carries an outstanding predictive role.According to the information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo,we conceived the 2D-and 3D-ordered network structure of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the South Yellow Sea and the whole research region. Based on this,we analyzed and discussed the variation of seismicity in detail and also made trend prediction of M≥6 strong earthquakes in the future.The results showed that since 1998 it has entered into a new quiet episode which may continue until about year 2042;and the first M≥6 strong earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around year 2053,with the likely location in the area of the South Yellow Sea;furthermore,the second and the third ones or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around year 2058 and 2070.

关 键 词：江苏-南黄海地区 地震活动分幕 强震链 信息有序网络结构 M≥6强震预测 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]