云计算环境下基于马尔可夫链动态模糊评价的供应链伙伴选择研究  

Research on supply chain partner selection based on Markov chain dynamic fuzzy evaluation in cloud computing

作　　者：段茜[1] 黄梦醒[1] 万兵[1] 杨雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南大学信息科学技术学院,海口570228

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2014年第8期2403-2406,共4页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71161007);国家教育部社科基金资助项目(10YJCZH049);海南省重点科技计划资助项目(ZDXM20120061;ZDXM20130078)

摘　　要：云计算环境为供应链柔性、松耦合、无缝集成与构建提供了良好的集成环境,使节点企业可以快速且以较低的成本来选择合适的企业,共同提高供应链整体绩效。然而,云计算环境下供应链伙伴选择评价过程具有动态性以及评价指标模糊性和不确定性的特点。针对这些问题,提出基于马尔可夫链的动态模糊评价模型。通过构建的评价指标体系,采用主客观相结合的综合权重法计算指标权值,利用模糊综合分析法对不同历史时间段的节点企业进行评价,引入马尔可夫链理论,建立概率转移矩阵,得到状态稳定向量,结合权值得到节点企业发展趋势以及综合评估值。最后,通过实例证明该评价方法的合理性和可行性。Cloud computing provides a good integrated environment for the flexibility,loose coupling,＂seamless＂integration and building of supply chain,which makes it possible for node enterprises to choose a right partner in a rapid and low-cost way and then jointly improves the overall supply chain performance. However,the supply chain partner selection and evaluation process is dynamic and the evaluation indexes are fuzzy and uncertain under the cloud computing environment. To address the problems above,this paper proposed a dynamic fuzzy evaluation model based on Markov chain. Based on the constructed evaluation index system,the model adopted a subjective and objective comprehensive weight calculating method to calculate the index weight. Then it used the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method to evaluate node enterprises in different historical periods,and obtained the steady state vector by introducing Markov chain theory and establishing transition probability matrix. Next,it gained the development trend of node enterprises and their comprehensive evaluation value by combining the weight value calculated above. Finally,the examples and results demonstrate that the evaluation method is reasonable and feasible.

关 键 词：云计算 供应链 伙伴选择 动态模糊评价 马尔可夫链 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] F274[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]