贵州旅游产业发展的决定因素分析——基于Johansen协整检验方法  

Analysis of Decisive Factors for the Development of Guizhou Tourism Industry Based on Johansen Cointegration Test

作　　者：刘开华[1] 陈廉[1] 熊正贤[1] 姜亚鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]长江师范学院,重庆涪陵408100 [2]昆明理工大学,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《生态经济》2014年第8期121-126,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：2009年度国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(09&ZD011);2011年重庆社科规划一般项目(2011YBJJ035);2011年度国家社会科学基金项目(11XJY016)中期成果;教育部人文社科项目(10YJC790112)

摘　　要：贵州省旅游资源丰富，但由于生态脆弱、交通不便等因素制约了旅游产业的发展。首先从贵州旅游产业的市场供求现状出发，分析制约贵州旅游产业发展的主要因素，进而通过收集1996-2011年的数据，采用Johansen协整检验等方法进行实证分析。结果发现：贵州旅游企业较小难以形成规模效应；旅游资源和旅游线路缺乏科学的整体规划；落后地区交通等基础设施建设不足。由此提出的建议：应由政府主导进行科学规划，整合旅游资源，加大资本投入和人才建设，加强旅游产品开发，优化旅游产业链等。Guizhou province is rich in tourism resources, but because the fragile ecology, traffic inconvenience, the development of the tourism industry is still at a low level. Firstly, from the present situation of market supply and demand of Guizhou＇s tourism industry, the paper analyzes the main factors restricting the development of tourism industry in Guizhou, and then by collecting the data of 1996-2011, using Johansen cointegration test and other methods of empirical analysis, the paper get the following results： Guizhou tourism enterprises is too small and difficult to form a scale effect; tourism resources and tourism line is lack of overall planning of science; transportation infrastructures in the backward area are deficient. This proposals are： the government should make scientific planning, combine tourism resources, increase the input of capital and talents education, strengthen the tourism product development, and optimize of the tourism industrial chain.

关 键 词：贵州 旅游产业 Johansen协整 误差修正 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]