近55年以来漳卫河流域干旱演变特征  

Drought Evolution Characteristics in the Zhangwei River Basin in Recent 55 years

作　　者：王刚[1,2] 严登华[1,2] 申丽霞[3] 翁白莎[1,2] 汤欣钢[3] 万金红[4] 

机构地区：[1]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]水利部海委漳河上游管理局,河北邯郸056006 [4]中国水利水电科学研究院水利史研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2014年第4期1-5,29,共6页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目"气候变化对黄淮海地区水循环的影响机理和水资源安全评估"(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于水资源系统的广义干旱风险评价与风险区划研究"(51279207)

摘　　要：以漳卫河流域11个气象基准站1957年-2011年降水日值资料为基础,基于标准化降水指数选取干旱发生频次、干旱影响范围、干旱强度与历时、干旱重心等指标,分析了流域降水突变前后气象干旱演变特征。结果表明:流域降水在1976年发生突变,降水突变前后,年尺度干旱发生频次和影响范围显著增加,分别由20%、23.2%增加到40%、34.1%;在季尺度上,春旱发生频次和影响范围均有较大程度减少,夏旱和秋旱的发生频次和影响范围有所增大,冬旱的发生频次和影响范围分别有小幅度的增大和减少;年尺度和季尺度干旱的平均干旱历时和强度增加显著,而月尺度干旱的干旱历时和强度略有下降;流域干旱重心在降水突变前后未发生明显的变化。Based on the daily precipitation data at 11meteorological stations in the Zhangwei River Basin during the period from1957to 2011,several SPI-based indices,including drought frequency,drought affected area,drought severity and duration,and drought barycentric coordinates,have been selected to analyze the meteorological drought evolution before and after the precipitation mutation.The results showed that（1）precipitation mutation occurred in 1976,and the frequency and affected area of drought in the year scale have increased significantly from 20%and 23.2%to 40%and 34.1% before and after precipitation mutation,respectively;（2）in the season scale,drought frequency and affected area decreased to some extent in the spring but increased greatly in both summer and autumn,and the drought frequency increased while affected area decreased in the winter;（3）the average drought duration and severity increased significantly in both the year and season scales,but decreased in the month scale;and（4）the drought barycentric coordinates showed insignificant change before and after the precipitation mutation.

关 键 词：标准化降水指数 降水突变 干旱演变 漳卫河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]