全国及九大流域分类用水影子价格的计算与预测  

Calculating and forecasting shadow prices of all kinds of water in China and its nine major river basins

作　　者：刘秀丽[1] 邹璀[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2014年第4期10-15,共6页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173210;70701034;61273208)

摘　　要：在全国和九大流域水资源投入占用产出表的基础上,通过建立线性规划模型,计算了2002年全国及九大流域农业用水、工业用水、生活用水、生态环境用水及总的生产用水的影子价格。将实际水价与影子价格进行对比,发现实际水价明显偏低,认为需要适当提高水价,在此基础上建立了不依赖于投入产出表的计算各类用水影子价格的非线性回归模型。应用该模型预测了2015年和2020年全国和九大流域农业用水、工业用水、生活用水、生态环境用水及总的生产用水的影子价格,结果表明:2020年全国和九大流域各类水资源的影子价格均比2015年有所提高,全国生产用水、工业用水、农业用水、生活用水和生态环境用水影子价格的涨幅分别为2.2%、1.3%、1.5%、0.3%和3.2%,九大流域中,依然是海河流域各类用水的影子价格最高,西南和内陆流域的影子价格最低。Based on water resources input-occupancy-output tables of China and its nine major river basins, a linear programming model was constructed to calculate the shadow prices of agricultural water, industrial water, domestic water, ecological water, and total production water in 2002. Then the actual price of water was compared with its shadow price. The results show that the actual prices is much lower than the shadow price. In consequence, it is necessary to raise the actual price of water. Accordingly, a nonlinear regression model, which is independent of the input-occupancy-output tables, was set up to calculate the shadow price of all kinds of water. The shadow prices of agricultural water, industrial water, domestic water, ecological water, and total production water in China and its nine major river basins in 2015 and 2020 were forecasted based on this nonlinear regression model. The results show that the shadow prices of all kinds of water in 2020 will be higher than those in 2015. The shadow prices of production water, industrial water, agricultural water, domestic water, and ecological water in China would rise respectively by 2.2%, 1.3%, 1.5%, 0.3%, and 3.2% from 2015 to 2020. Among the nine major river basins in China, the shadow prices of all kinds of water in Haihe River basin is still the highest, while those of the south-west and inland river basins are the lowest.

关 键 词：水资源 水价 影子价格 投入占用产出表 九大流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]