改进的突变模型及其在水资源评价中的应用  

An improved catastrophe model and its application in water resources assessment

作　　者：郑德凤[1] 臧正[1] 王平富[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2014年第4期46-52,共7页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20122136110003);国家社会科学基金(11BJY063)

摘　　要：针对突变理论和传统突变模型对多目标、多准则复杂系统进行决策分析时,评价结果容易受到主观因素影响致使其准确性较低的问题,利用传统突变模型对辽宁省农业水资源可持续利用水平进行评价,比较不同方案得出的评价结果,分析传统突变模型的灵敏度;在此基础上,提出基于熵值法和熵权理论改进的突变模型,并进一步进行验证。结果表明,改进突变模型能有效避免人为主观因素的影响,评价方法科学合理,评价结果客观准确。When the traditional catastrophe progression method are used to make a decision for a multi-object and multi-criterion complicated system, the assessment results are easily affected by subjective factors and its veracity are limited. In order to analyze the reliability of catastrophe progression method in practice, the sustainable utilization level of agricultural water resources in Liaoning Province are evaluated by using traditional catastrophe model. Furthermore, the sensitivity are analyzed by comparing the assessment results of different schemes. Based on the above-mentioned challenges, an improved catastrophe model, based on entropy method and entropy weight theory, are proposed. The results are evaluated by using an improved catastrophe model and the information of objective facts of the study area. The example application showed that the improved catastrophe model can effectively avoid factitious subjectivity and are more scientific and reasonable. Additionally, the results are more objective and accurate.

关 键 词：突变模型 熵权 灵敏度 水资源评价 辽宁省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]