安徽省1978年特大干旱研究  

Study on dreadful drought in 1978 for Anhui Province

作　　者：郭姝姝[1] 辛景峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》2014年第1期8-14,共7页Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201001078);高分辨率对地观测系统重大专项"水利业务应用信息服务系统(一期)"(08-Y30B07-9001-13/15)

摘　　要：依据安徽省109个雨量站1978年逐日降水量数据,综合运用降水量距平百分率法、建立区域旱情指数法以及GIS空间分析技术,采用逐步缩小时间尺度的方式,对安徽省1978年干旱的时空演变特征进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)通过修正的降水量距平百分率法,由于充分考虑了前期降水的累积效应,其分析逐日干旱结果符合实际情况;(2)区域旱情指数法是确定干旱过程起始和终止的有效方法;(3)安徽省1978年发生春、夏、秋三季连旱,干旱持续253 d,其中,4月4日—8月11日连续130 d全省旱情最重,在5月3日全省75%的耕地旱情等级达到重旱以上。Based on the daily data from 109 rainfall stations, the spatial-temporal evolution of drought in 1978 for Anhui province is analyzed in different time scales using the precipitation anomaly percentage index and the regional drought index in the GIS environment. The study results indicate that： （1） When the cumulative effects of pre-precipitation are taken into account, the study results are consistent with actual situation through the improved precipitation anomaly percentage index in daily scale. （2） The proposed regional drought index is an effective method to determine the start and end date of drought. （3） Anhui prov- ince had experienced a seasonally continuous drought from spring to autumn in 1978, which lasted for 253 days. The drought from April 4 to August 11 was the most serious, and on May 3, 75 % of the arable land was affected by severe drought.

关 键 词：特大干旱 旱情重现 降水量 时空演变 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]