河北地区气候变化及其对农业的影响  

Research of Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Hebei Region

作　　者：刘芳圆[1] 肖嗣荣[1] 刘寒[2] 穆仲义[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省科学院地理科学研究所,河北石家庄050021 [2]南京大学地理信息科学系,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2014年第4期122-126,共5页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：河北省科学技术厅项目(09276722)

摘　　要：以气温和降水为主要气候因子,选取河北及京津23个气象站点数据,分析河北地区1956-2007年气候变化特征:近50年全区年均气温呈波动上升趋势,且冬季气温升高对年气温的上升贡献率最大;年降水量总体呈波动减少趋势,其中夏季降水呈明显波动减少趋势。对未来该区气候变化特征进行了预估。从地下水位、土地环境、农业病虫害的角度分析了河北地区气候变化对农业生产环境的影响;分析了近50年来气候变化对农作物种植制度的影响以及对作物生理生态和品质产生的不确定影响。气候变化在一定程度上降低了农业生产水平,提高了生产成本,频发的极端气候事件也会增加农业生产的损失。最后给出了未来气候变化对该区农业的可能影响。Climate change of Hebei region （Beijing,Tianjin,Heibei Province）during 1956-2007 was analyzed using temperature and precipitation data of 23 meteorological stations in Hebei,Beijing and Tianjin.The result showed that：1） in recent 50 years,the average annual temperature was fluctuating upward trend,and the winter temperature rise had the greatest contribution to annual temperature rise; 2） the annual precipitation was overall fluctuating decrease,and the summer precipitation showed obviously fluctuating decrease trend.The future climate change in this region was also estimated.On this basis,the impact of climate change on agriculture production environment in Hebei region was analyzed from the view of water table,land environment,agriculture pest.The impact of climate change on crop planting system,physiological ecology and quality of crops were analyzed.It is believed that climate change in Hebei region reduced the level of agricultural production to some extent,and resulted in increasing costs and loss of crop production.Finally,the possible impact on future agriculture production in this region was forecasted.

关 键 词：河北地区 气候变化 农业影响 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]