多阶段应急决策的方案链选择方法  

Method for Selecting the Alternative Chain in Multi-Stage Emergency Decision

作　　者：姜艳萍[1] 樊治平[1] 苏明明[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2014年第3期97-101,共5页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大计划培育项目(90924016);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271050);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20110042110011)

摘　　要：针对多阶段不同情景下多指标多任务的应急决策问题,提出了一种方案链选择方法。在该方法中,首先给出了决策方案链的概念,并对多阶段多指标多任务的应急决策问题进行了描述;然后根据相邻阶段的子方案之间的相容性,构建了相容性关系矩阵;进一步地,在考虑相邻阶段子方案之间相容性的情形下,以各阶段的子方案的综合评价值最大为目标,建立了应急决策的方案链选择的优化模型。通过求解模型,得到应急决策的最优方案链。最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。With respect to the multi-stage multi-criteria and multi-task emergency decision problems,a method for selecting the alternative chain is proposed. In this method,the concept of alternative chain is given and multi-stage multi-criteria and multi-task emergency decision problem is described. The compatibility relationship matrices are constructed to reflect the sub-alternative compatibility between two adjacent stages. An optimization model is developed to solve the alternative chain selection problem on the basis of compatibility relationship matrices and sub-alternative evaluation values. And the optimal alternative chain can be determined by solving the constructed model. Finally,an example is given to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.

关 键 词：应急决策 多阶段 方案链 选择 相容性 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]