三江平原水资源承载力的泛系观控与风险评估  

Pansystems Observation-Control and Risk Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Sanjiang Plain

作　　者：宫凡荔[1] 付强[1,2,3] 姜秋香[1,2,3] 李天霄[1,2,3] 刘巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]黑龙江省粮食产能提升协同创新中心,哈尔滨150030 [3]黑龙江省普通高等学校节水农业重点实验室,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2014年第3期1-4,9,共5页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51179032;51209038;51279031);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301096);黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(12531009);黑龙江省普通高校新世纪优秀人才培养计划(NO.1155-NCET-004)

摘　　要：水资源系统风险评估是保障水资源安全及其可持续利用的关键。针对三江平原存在着水资源开发利用率低、水资源短缺和供需不平衡等诸多问题,利用观控风险分析模型对三江平原及其区划内8个区域进行水资源承载力的风险评估。通过对风险和收益值的同步分析,确定了各区域的水资源承载力强弱程度,并在此基础上提出相应管理措施。研究结果为三江平原科学合理地制定水资源可持续利用策略提供了重要的理论依据,同时也为水资源系统的风险评估研究开阔了新的思路。Risk assessment of water resources system is the key to ensure the security and sustainable utilization of water resources.Aiming at the issues existing in the development and utilization of water resources in the Sanjiang Plain,such as low rates of water resources development and utilization,water shortages,and imbalance between supply and demand,the observation-control risk model was applied to perform risk assessment of water resources carrying capacity of eight regions in the Sanjiang Plain.According to the synchronized analysis of risk and gain,the degree of water resources carrying capacity of each study area was determined,and the corresponding management measures were proposed.The research results can provide important theoretical basis for formulating scientific and reasonable water resources sustainable utilization strategy in the Sanjiang Plain,and also open up a new way for the research in the field of risk assessment of water resources system.

关 键 词：水资源 承载力 泛系理论 观控风险 风险评估 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]