家庭户电力消费的年龄性别模式与节电减排的政策选择  

Age-gender Pattern in Household Electricity Consumption and Policy Implications for Electricity Conservation and Emission Reduction

作　　者：米红[1,2] 任正委 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学人口与发展研究所 [2]浙江大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2014年第4期37-49,共13页Population Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(12JZD035);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303212);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(LZ13G030001)的资助

摘　　要：电力已经成为家庭生活使用最为频繁的二次能源，也是对家庭户人口规模和结构变动最为敏感的能源。中国家庭户人口年龄性别结构的多元化变动，势必会影响以户为单位进行的居民电力消费。文章利用包含家庭户所有成员年龄和性别的CFPS基线调查数据，通过回归分解模型来估算分年龄性别人口的用电量，构建家庭户电力消费的年龄性别模式。结果发现：家庭户中不同年龄性别人口的增加对人均用电量的影响是不同的，呈现“倒U型”的年龄别模式和“女高男低”的性别模式；25～34岁的女性人口增加对人均用电量具有特殊的正向效应，是家庭户电力消费最重要的行为主体。阶梯电价政策的制定和调整、居民电力消费的预测和规划都应充分考虑家庭户人口年龄性别结构及其变动的影响。Electricity power is the most frequently used secondary energy and the most population/ household-related energy in human societies. The age and gender strudure of population in Chinese households have changed to be much more diversified, which would have a significant impact on the residential eledricity consumption at the household level. In order to examine the age-gender pattern in household eledricity consumption, we use pooled data from the CFPS baseline database which includes age and gender of all the household members, decomposing household-level electricity consumption into individual-level age-gender pattern by defining the age-gender index as a key variable in the regression model. The results indicate that the impact of household size on per capital eledricity usage differs be- tween age-gender population groups. The age pattern presents a ＂inverted U＂ shape, while the gender pattern is ＂higher for females than males＂. 25-34 year old female population, which has a positive effect on per capital eledricity usage, is the most important subied in household eledricity consumption. Mak- ing and adjusting policy of multistep electricily price and predidion and planning of residential electricity consumption should take age and gender structure of population in households into consideration.

关 键 词：家庭户 电力消费 年龄性别模式 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]