中国省际财政分权的决定因素及其空间依赖性  

Inter-Provincial Determinants of Fiscal Decentralization and Spatial Dependence in China

作　　者：段龙龙[1] 罗也骁 刘晓茜[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《深圳大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2014年第4期84-92,共9页Journal of Shenzhen University：Humanities & Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目"加强农业基础地位与确保国家粮食安全战略研究"(08AJY034);中央高校基本科研业务费项目"四川承接转移产业体制机制研究"(2010XS51);西南交通大学公管文渊基金项目"参与式预算改革的跨国比较与中国实践启示"(JDWY13-05)

摘　　要：在构建包括央地财政收支比重及其地方独立性指标在内的综合性财政分权指数的基础上,利用空间探索性分析(ESDA)和空间计量方法对中国2000年和2012年31个省市自治区的财政分权空间格局及其决定因素进行考察,可以发现人口规模与素质、经济增长、城乡差距、政府规模、开放程度、公共服务供给能力与社会民主发育水平对省际财政分权起正向驱动作用,而城镇化水平对省际财政分权具备负向约束性;中国财政分权变迁具有显著的空间依赖性并存在空间俱乐部集聚现象。尽管后发地区表现出较高地方财政独立性下的财政收支赤字,但随着人口规模、经济总量、政府规模、公共服务供给水平、民主进程及人口素质提升,财政收支将逐步趋于平衡。因此,即将开启的财政分权改革可选择俱乐部集聚地区进行试点,利用外部因素"倒逼"分权体制变迁的同时消除落后地区财政赤字累积弊病。On the basis of reconstructing both local and state-wide fiscal revenue-expenditure ratios and thecomprehensive fiscal decentralization index （including the local independent index）, this paper applies the ESDAmethod as well as the spatial measuring method to study the spatial patterns of fiscal decentralization and itsdeciding factors of 31 provinces in China in 2000 and 2012. The paper comes up with following conclusions： thequantity and quality of the population, economic growth, urban-rural gap, government size, opening degree, thecapacity of public services as well as the maturity of social democracy have positive （i.e., driving） effect onprovincial fiscal decentralization, while the urbanization degree has negative （i.e., restricting） effect. Thetransformation of Chinese fiscal decentralization has revealed the phenomena of spatial dependence and spatial＂club-agglomeration.＂ Although the underdeveloped areas experience fiscal deficit against the background ofhigher local fiscal independence, the improvement of the above mentioned factors will help contain the deficit.This paper suggests that the reformation of fiscal decentralization may begin with the ＂club agglomeration＂ areas,and that the external factors can be strategically managed so as to facilitate the reformation as well as theelimination of fiscal deficit in underdeveloped area.

关 键 词：财政分权 央地关系 财政独立性 空间格局 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]