天然气管道可靠性的计算方法  

Computation of gas pipeline reliability

作　　者：温凯[1,2] 张文伟[2] 宫敬[1] 李恒东[2] 张振永[2] 赵博渊 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室,北京102249 [2]中国石油天然气管道工程有限公司,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《油气储运》2014年第7期729-733,共5页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助项目"油气管网系统的状态空间建模与分析";YJRC-2013-11;河北省博士后科研项目择优资助项目"基于状态空间模型的天然气管网控制性能研究";项目编号20

摘　　要：基于可靠性的设计和评价方法(RBDA)是天然气管道设计技术的发展方向,国内外学术界针对该方法的应用展开广泛研究。针对天然气管道基于可靠性设计与评价方法所涉及的理论内容,研究了管道可靠性的分析过程,给出了极限状态方程蒙特卡罗仿真的通用算法,建立了管道可靠度计算软件框架,并以CSA Z662附录O中提供的无缺陷管道屈服和破裂极限状态函数为例对某输气管道进行可靠度计算和参数的敏感性分析。最后,根据分析结果,对管道的设计和管理提出可行性建议。提出的计算方法将方程与仿真计算分离,适合将更多的方程列入计算框架中,可以对管道的可靠性进行全面分析。The reliability-based design and assessment （RBDA） method is the prospect of natural gas pipeline design. It is studied intensively by domestic and overseas academic communities. According to the theory involved in RBDA, analysis procedure of pipeline reliability is investigated, universal algorithm of limit state equation of Monte-Carol simulation is provided, and the calculation software framework for pipeline reliability is established. Taking the yield and fracture limit state function of zero defect pipe provided in Appendix O of CSA Z662 as an example, calculation of reliability and sensitivity analysis of parameters of an actual gas pipeline are implemented. Finally, based on the analysis results, feasible suggestions for the pipeline design and management are proposed. The computational method proposed separates the equation and simulation calculation, which is suitable to list more equations in the computing framework, so that a comprehensive analysis can be made for pipeline reliability.

关 键 词：天然气管道 可靠性分析 极限状态方程 蒙特卡罗仿真 软件框架 

分 类 号：TE53[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]