基于云模型的应急决策方法  

Emergency decision-making method based on the cloud model

作　　者：夏登友[1,2] 钱新明[1] 康青春[2] 段在鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国人民武装警察部队学院消防指挥系,廊坊065000

出　　处：《北京科技大学学报》2014年第7期972-978,共7页Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目(91024032);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2012BAK13B01)

摘　　要：针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,提出了一种基于云模型的应急决策方法.首先根据突发灾害事故应急的目标和特点选择决策指标并建立决策指标集;然后基于决策者的语言值及其对应的数域确定决策指标的权重值和评价值,利用逆向云发生器算法生成云模型的数字特征;再利用综合云的思想,运用云运算规则,得到各应急方案的评价云;最后把应急方案的评价云与评价标准云进行相似性比较,综合判断应急方案的评价等级并优选最佳的应急方案.实例研究表明:该方法充分利用了专家的群体信息,实现了应急方案决策中定性语言和定量评价之间的有效转化,结果更为直观、合理,便于改善应急决策的客观性和提高应急管理的效率.Aiming at the problem of fuzziness and randomness in the process of emergency disasters and accidents decision-making, this article introduces a method of emergency decision-making based on the cloud model. Firstly, decision indexes are selected according to the target and characteristics of rescue in emergency disasters and accidents, and the set of decision indexes is established. Secondly, the weight values and evaluation values of decision indexes are determined according to decision-makers’ linguistic values and the relevant range, and the digital characters of the cloud model are produced by backward cloud generator. Thirdly, the evaluation cloud of each alternative is calculated through the arithmetic rules of cloud. Finally, the similarity between each alternative’ s evaluation cloud and standard evaluation cloud is compared to obtain the comment grade of each alternative, and the best alternative is selected. Case studies show that the method could take full advantage of expert group information, and make the conversion between qualitative description and quantitative indication more effective. The result is objective and feasible, which could improve decision-making objectivity and emergency management effectiveness.

关 键 词：应急决策 云计算 评价 不确定性 优选 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]