应用圆形分布法分析舟山市手足口病发病高峰变化  

The circular distribution analysis on peak changes of hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhoushan City

作　　者：任飞林[1] 仝振东[1] 唐安[1] 顾全忠[1] 王建跃[1] 

机构地区：[1]舟山市疾病预防控制中心,浙江舟山316021

出　　处：《浙江预防医学》2014年第7期683-686,共4页Zhejiang Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的分析舟山市2010—2012年手足口病月发病情况,比较手足口病发病季节趋势并探讨高峰变化原因。方法用圆形分布法分析手足口病发病高峰日期,分别用Watson-William法和Watson's U2法对3年发病高峰进行比较。采用卡方检验分析不同亚型病原体分布,用Bonferroni法进行两两比较。结果舟山市2010—2012年手足口病发病均存在季节性集中趋势(P<0.01),5月8日—9月1日是疫情高峰期;3年间发病高峰时间不尽相同(P<0.01),2012年发病高峰时间早于2010年及2011年(P<0.01)。2010—2012年报告356例实验室诊断病例,病原体分布各年不同(P<0.01),其中2010年、2011年以EV 71病毒为主,分别占58.46%、64.62%;而2012年以其他肠道病毒为主,占48.84%;两两比较表明,2010年、2011年分别与2012年病原体构成不同,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。结论舟山市手足口病发生有明显的季节高峰,病原体优势毒株发生变化,由EV 71转变为其他肠道病毒。Objective To describe the monthly incidence distribution of hand- foot- mouth disease（ HFMD） from 2010 to2012 in Zhoushan city and to analyze the seasonal trend and the causes of peak changes. Methods Circular distribution method was used to identify the peak period of HFMD incidence. Watson- William test and Watson＇s U2test were applied for comparing the peak periods respectively. Chi- square test was conducted to analyze and compare the distribution of HFMD pathogen in different years and Bonferroni method was used for multiple comparisons. Results There was seasonal centralized tendency of HFMD incidence during 2010 to 2012（ P〈0. 01）. The peak period occurred between 8th of May and 1st of September which showed a significant difference among three years（ P〈0. 01）. Specifically,the peak period in2012 was earlier than that in 2010 and 2011（ both P〈0. 01）. Among the 356 reported cases with laboratory confirmed,there was significant difference between the distribution of HFMD pathogen by Chi- square test（ P〈0. 01）. The predominant strain was EV71 in 2010 and 2011 accounting for 58. 46% and 64. 62% respectively and other enteric viruses in 2012 accounting for 48. 84%. The ratio of pathogens in 2012 was statistically different from that in 2010 and 2011respectively（ both P〈0. 01）. Conclusion HFMD cases occur with obvious peak season,regional and geographic differences. The major pathogens of EV71 in 2010 and 2011 were changed into other enteric viruses in 2012.

关 键 词：手足口病 季节性 发病高峰 病原体 

分 类 号：R183.7[医药卫生—流行病学] R512.5[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]