SinoSCORE和EuroSCORE Ⅱ对老年冠状动脉旁路移植术患者死亡风险预测的价值  

Application value of mortality prediction with SinoSCORE and EuroSCORE Ⅱ in gerontal patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting

作　　者：张蔚然 邵永丰 张杨杨 宋禹辰 徐骁晗 魏磊 王晓伟 张石江 

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学第一附属医院胸心外科,江苏省210029

出　　处：《江苏医药》2014年第13期1517-1519,共3页Jiangsu Medical Journal

摘　　要：目的评价中国冠状动脉旁路移植手术风险评估系统(SinoSCORE)和欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统Ⅱ(EuroSCOREⅡ)对江苏省老年冠状动脉旁路移植术(CABG)患者术后院内死亡风险预测的临床应用价值。方法回顾性分析610例年龄65岁以上单纯CABG患者的临床资料,评价SinoSCORE及EuroSCOREⅡ对其院内死亡率的识别度和校准度。结果两种评估系统对死亡率的识别度和校准度均较好。SinoSCORE的受试者工作特征曲线下面积高于EuroSCOREⅡ(0.796vs.0.767),SinoSCORE对江苏省老年CABG患者院内死亡率预测好于EuroSCOREⅡ。结论 SinoSCORE来源数据库在中国人群中有一定的代表性,可以用于预测老年CABG患者术后院内死亡率。Objective To evaluate the clinical application value of mortality prediction with Sino-System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation（SinoSCORE）and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation Ⅱ（EuroSCORE Ⅱ）in gerontal patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting（CABG）from Jiangsu province.Methods By retrospectively analyzing clinical data of 610patients aged more than 65years old underwent isolated CABG,discrimination and calibration of in-hospital mortality with SinoSCORE and EuroSCORE Ⅱ were assessed.Results Calibration and discrimination of the two evaluation models were both good in predicting in-hospital mortality with P value of Hosmer Lemeshow（H-L）test higher than 0.05and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve（AUC）higher than 0.75.The AUC of SinoSCORE was higher than EuroSCOREⅡ（0.796vs.0.767）.SinoSCORE showed a better in-hospital mortality prediction than EuroSCORE Ⅱ.Conclusion SinoSCORE sourced database has certain representativeness in Chinese population and could be applied in predicting in-hospital mortality of gerontal patients undergoing CABG.

关 键 词：冠状动脉旁路移植术 中国冠状动脉旁路移植手术风险评估系统 欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统Ⅱ 

分 类 号：R654[医药卫生—外科学]