太阳辐射时空分布模拟方法研究  

SPATIO-TEMPORAL SIMULATION OF DAILY SOLAR RADIATION IN SICHUAN PROVINCE

作　　者：邱帅[1,2] 徐明[1] 李仁强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《第四纪研究》2014年第4期898-904,共7页Quaternary Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目-我国陆地生态系统固碳潜力与速率的综合模拟与集成分析(批准号:XDA05050602-1);四川省林业厅项目-区域林业碳汇/源计量体系构建及应用研究(2009-204);TNC执行的GIZ赠款项目"低碳土地利用:四川林业碳计量"共同资助

摘　　要：太阳辐射在生态过程模拟中是重要的驱动数据。尤其是在大区域模拟时,由于太阳辐射观测站点数有限,逐日高分辨率的太阳辐射空间数据很难直接获取。本研究根据太阳辐射传输过程,建立了太阳辐射传输模型,计算太阳直射辐射、散射辐射以及总辐射。利用ANUSPLIN软件插值得到的各气象要素数据,作为太阳辐射传输模型的输入变量,通过四川省周边13个站点的辐射观测值以及日照时数建立辐射校正参数,最终建立四川省500m×500m逐日的太阳辐射空间数据集。结果表明,13个辐射站点的晴空太阳辐射预测值,年均为8594MJ,略高于实测的多年最大值8062MJ;并利用13个辐射站点的数据,建立实测辐射与晴空辐射的比值同日照百分率的线性关系(R^2=0.76,参数a和b分别为0.262和0.756),对晴空太阳辐射进行校正,得到13个站点太阳辐射年均模拟值为5023MJ,实测值为5030MJ,二者呈显著线性相关(R^2为0.79,p<0.05),平均绝对误差(MAPE)为23.3%;通过该模型模拟的四川省太阳辐射通量为210~524W/m^2(白天平均);从空间格局上看,四川盆地和边缘区较低(<300W/m^2),西部高原区最高。结合空间化的日照时数等气象数据,本研究为碳循环的区域模拟提供了一套精度较高的太阳辐射数据,并为全球变化研究中所需太阳辐射数据的获取提供方法参考。Solar radiation is one of the important input variables for ecological process-based models.However,it is difficult to obtain directly the daily high-resolution solar radiation,especially for the large region.In the present study,based on the China＇s ground basic meteorological data products and daily solar radiation data in Sichuan province,we constructed a solar radiation model according to the clear sky solar radiation transfer processes to calculate the direct radiation,diffuse radiation,and total radiation.We used the observed solar radiation and sunshine duration from 13 radiation stations to calibrate our simulation results.All climate data were interpolated to 500m×500m cell grid as input data for the solar radiation models,and the validations showed high correlations （0.93～ 0.99） between the observations and predictions.Finally,we derived a set of daily solar radiation based on 500m×500m cell grid in Sichuan Provence.Our results indicated that the sum of predicted annual solar radiation （8594MJ） under the cloudless condition was slightly higher than the observed solar radiation （8062MJ） which was the maximum daily radiation for 20 years.The R square for the regression between radiation ratio （observed radiation to simulated radiation） and the sunshine duration is 0.76,and the parameters （a,b） were 0.262 and 0.756.The finally calibrated annual solar radiation （5023MJ） was slightly lower than the observed value of 5030MJ.The R square for the regression of the simulation and observation was 0.79,and the mean absolute percentage error is 23.3％.Furthermore,the simulated average daily radiation flux was 210～524W/m2 over 1988to 2010.The lowest flux （＜300W/m2） are located in the basin and its edge area,and the highest radiation flux is in the plateau region of Sichuan Province.The solar radiation model can produce high-resolution climate dataset and also can be used as a sub-model in ecological process models.

关 键 词：太阳辐射 生态过程模型 逐日 气候插值 

分 类 号：P422[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] Q148[生物学—生态学]