基于未确知测度理论的排土场滑坡风险评价模型  

Risk evaluation model of waste dump landslide based on uncertainty measurement theory

作　　者：栾婷婷[1] 谢振华[1] 吴宗之[2] 何娜[1] 张雪冬[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《中南大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第5期1612-1617,共6页Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目(2012BAK09B05)

摘　　要：应用未确知测度理论,建立露天矿山排土场滑坡的评价模型。根据影响排土场稳定性的因素的重要程度,建立排土场滑坡评价三级指标体系,选取地基坡度、边坡高度、边坡角、防排水设施、爆破质点振动速度、日最大降雨量、月累计降雨量、最大地震烈度、下游人数、下游财产和乱采乱挖等11项三级指标作为未确知测度模型的判别指标,构建指标的未确知测度函数,采用信息熵理论确定评价指标权重,依据置信度识别准则对滑坡危险性等级进行判定。最后,利用该模型对国内一典型露天矿排土场的滑坡危险性进行评价,评价结果与实际情况较吻合。The evaluation model for waste dump landslide of open-pit mine was established through uncertainty measurement theory. Firstly, three-level index system of waste dump landslide evaluation was established, which included 11 major factors, such as foundation slope, slope height, slope angle, waterproofing and drainage facilities, blasting particle vibration velocity, daily maximum rainfall, monthly cumulative rainfall, maximum seismic intensity, downstream population, downstream property and mining disorderly. Then, the uncertainty measurement function of index was obtained, the evaluation index weight was determined by information entropy theory, and according to the rules of credible recognition criteria, the landslide risk rating was decided to warn the waste dump landslide disaster. Finally, the model was put into a typical open-pit mine in China and the evaluation results fit those o the actual situation well.

关 键 词：露天矿 排土场滑坡 未确知测度 信息熵 置信度识别 风险评价 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]