考虑热老化的油浸式变压器比例风险模型  

A Proportional Hazard Model for oil-immersed transformer concerning thermal aging

作　　者：郭创新[1] 何迪[1] 张金江[1] 鹿鸣明 杨秀瑜 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027 [2]深圳供电局,深圳518001

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2014年第2期14-20,64,共8页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51177143);国家高技术研究发展计划("863"计划)(2011AA05A120);浙江省自然科学基金(LZ12E07002)

摘　　要：根据油浸式变压器中不可修复故障和可修复故障的不同机理,搭建适用于表征变压器故障率的比例风险模型;模型中基准故障率函数采用温升老化模型,并以劣化分级健康状态作为连接函数协变量,采用变形后的极大似然估计法进行参数拟合,减少了对数据量的依赖。该模型能综合考虑热老化和设备健康状态的影响,可以得出较为准确的检测间隔期,有助于电力部门合理安排检修计划,具有较好的应用前景。Based on different mechanisms of repairable and unrepairable faults for oil-immersed transformer, The Proportional Hazard Model （PHM） which is applicable to characterize the fail- ure rate of the transformer was proposed in this paper. This model adopted temperature-based aging model as the baseline hazard function, and utilized the deterioration classifiable health sta- tus as the covariant of the link function. The deformed maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） was used to estimate the model＇s parameters to reduce the dependence on data amount. This mod- el, which comprehensive considered the thermal aging process and the health statue of the equip- ment, can comparative exactly infer detection interval in order to help electricity sector arrange maintenance plan reasonably and has a good application prospect.

关 键 词：油浸式变压器 比例风险模型 故障率 极大似然估计 劣化分级健康状态 

分 类 号：TM411[电气工程—电器]