输电线路故障率模型研究  

Failure rate model for transmission line

作　　者：彭子平 刘波 陈清江 

机构地区：[1]广东电网公司中山供电局,广东中山528400 [2]广州运维电力科技有限公司,广东广州510600

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2014年第2期51-57,共7页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

摘　　要：综合考虑设备老化、天气因素和设备状态对输电线路故障率的影响,搭建基于比率风险的新型输电线路故障率模型。模型的故障率函数由基准故障率函数和状态描述函数组成,基准故障率函数采用温升老化模型,状态描述函数中的协变量选择与输电线路运行密切相关的天气因素和设备状态,采用极大似然估计法进行模型参数拟合。算例分析表明提出的模型具备表征实际故障率的能力。In order to comprehensively consider the equipment aging influence, weather factors and equipment health status,a new failure rate model for transmission lines based on PHM（Proportional hazard model） was proposed in this paper. The hazard function contains two parts. One is the baseline hazard function, which represents the thermal aging. And the other isequipment degradation state function, which represents the weather factors and equipment healthy status. The maximum likelihood estimation method isused to estimate the model parameters. The testingre- suits showedthat the model has the ability to characterize the practical failure rate.

关 键 词：输电线路 比例故障率模型 天气因素 设备状态 极大似然估计 

分 类 号：TM755[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]