中国木本食用油料价格波动规律分析——以油茶、核桃为例  

Research on the Price Fluctuation of Woody edible oil in China——Taking Camellia and Walnut as examples

作　　者：李婷[1] 郭亚军[1] 姚顺波[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学资源经济与环境管理研究中心,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2014年第2期138-144,共7页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173175);国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD042)

摘　　要：以木本食用油料油茶、核桃为例，利用季节调整法、H-P滤波等方法对2002-2010年油茶、核桃的季度收购价格进行波动性分析结果表明：这两种木本食用油料的收购价格均呈现出上升的长期趋势，具有明显的季节性波动，且易受到外部因素的冲击；2002-2010年油茶籽、核桃收购价格均经历了5次明显的周期波动，同时波动周期具有不可重复性和非对称性。木本食用油料自身的季节供应以及物理属性、自然因素等随机冲击、技术进步和消费者对绿色、健康的木本食用油需求的拉动效应以及木本食用油生产成本的推动效应影响木本食用油料价格的波动。In this article, taking the quarterly purchasing price of Camellia and Walnut （2002-2010）in China as objects, their fluctuation characteristics have been analyzed using season adjustment andH-P filter methods. The results show that the purchasing price of Camellia and Walnut have a risingtrend in long-term, each seasonal fluctuation is obvious, and be vulnerable to external shocks. At thesame time, the purchasing prices of Camellia and Walnut both have 5 fluctuation cycles, each showedthe characteristics of Non-repetitive and Asymmetry. The characteristics of seasonal supply and physi-cal properties （ such as Storability） , random shocks such as natural factors, technical progress （ in-cluding cultivation techniques, storage technologyand so on）, the pulling effect of customers＇demandfor green and healthy products, and the promoting effect of production cost on the woody edible oil,all influence the price fluctuation of the woody edible oil products.

关 键 词：木本食用油 价格波动 季节调整 H-P滤波 

分 类 号：F326.24[经济管理—产业经济]