基于定性与定量相结合的北京市轨道交通安全评价方法研究  

Research on Safety Assessment of Beijing Rail Transit Based on the Combination of Qualitative and Quantitative Methods

作　　者：王卓[1] 秦振海[1] 刁朋娣[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《控制工程期刊（中英文版）》2013年第5期310-319,共10页Scientific Journal of Control Engineering

摘　　要：轨道交通的安全评价研究，对确保其安全高效运行具有重要作用。本文首先以从人．车一环三方面建立的定量安全评价指标体系为基础，运用模糊物元方法对北京市的6条地铁线路进行定量安全评价，得出安全等级的排序；再以从管理方面建立的定性安全评价指标体系为基础，建立了轨道交通安全评价递阶层次指标体系，构建了轨道交通安全评级的综合评价模型，并运用模糊综合层次方法针对安全等级最高的地铁10号线进行了定性安全评价。通过采用模糊物元方法和和模糊综合层次分析法，实现了对北京市轨道交通安全状况的定量与定性评价，评价结果表明定量与定性相结合的安全评价方法是有效的和可行的，可更为客观的反映轨道交通的安全现状。Safety assessment of rail transit has great effect on guaranteeing the operation of urban rail transit safe and efficient. In this paper, based on quantitative safety assessment index built from the point of man-machine-circumstance, and the quantitative safety assessment of 6 Beijing subway lines can be fulfilled in the method of fuzzy matter-element, and then the sequence of the security level based on qualitative safety assessment index built from the point of management was got, a hierarchical index system of rail transit safety assessment was established, a comprehensive assessment of rail transit safety ratings was constructed. At last, using the method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, a qualitative study of safety assessment about Beijing subway line 10 can be carried out, which is of the highest level of security. By means of fuzzy matter-element and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, the quantitative and qualitative assessment of the rail transit safety situation of Beijing can be achieved. The results indicate that the combination of the two methods （quantitative method and qualitative method） is feasible and effective, and can reflect the safety situation of rail transit in a more objective way.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 安全评价 模糊物元 模糊综合层次分析 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]