自航水雷障碍对舰船目标流毁伤效能评估方法  

Estimate method for damage effectiveness of mobile mine obstacles attacking warship target flows

作　　者：冷相文[1] 朱红波[1] 张旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军大连舰艇学院水武与防化系,辽宁大连116018

出　　处：《南京理工大学学报》2014年第3期371-374,共4页Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology

基　　金：海军装备预研项目

摘　　要：为解决目前常用的舰船毁伤概率计算模型计算结果与实际情况偏离较大,难以满足战术计算和定量决策需求的问题,运用概率论多维随机变量分布理论,构建了目标舰船毁伤概率模型。针对舰船以纵队方式穿越水雷障碍的情况,基于自航水雷的雷位散布特性,综合考虑了水雷布放成功率、动作概率和布放误差等因素的影响。该文方法结果与采用蒙特卡罗模拟法得到的仿真结果差别很小。目标舰船无论以编队形式,还是多艘独立依次穿越水雷障碍,其毁伤概率随雷位横向间距变化规律与通过序列有关。对自航水雷障碍中的雷位进行优化配置,可确保舰船目标流中指定序列舰船达到预期的毁伤概率。To solve the problem that the results of common calculation models of warship damage ef-fectiveness deviate from the actual situations and can＇t satisfy the requirements of tactics calculation and quantitative decisions,a target surface warship damage probability model is established using probability distribution of multidimensional random variables. The effects of the mine releasing success rate,action probability and mine releasing error are thought about comprehensively based on the dispersion characteristics of mobile mines when warships go though mine obstacles as a column. The results of the method proposed here are close to those of the Monte Carlo simulation. The change＆nbsp;rule of warship damage probability with transverse distance of mines associates with the passing sequence when warships go though mine obstacles as a column or individually. The expectant damage probability of appointed warships of warship target flows is insured by optimal allocation of mobile mine obstacles.

关 键 词：自航水雷 舰船目标流 毁伤效能 毁伤概率 战术计算 定量决策 多维随机变量分布 纵队 布放成功率 动作概率 

分 类 号：TJ61[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]