基于LEAP模型的电力需求侧碳减排潜力分析  

Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Power Demand Side Based on LEAP Model

作　　者：刘贞[1,2] 朱开伟[1] 蒲刚清[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学低碳能源研究中心,重庆市400054 [2]美国劳伦斯国家能源实验室,美国加州94530

出　　处：《电力建设》2014年第6期153-159,共7页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073095)

摘　　要：降低电力需求侧能耗是电力行业节能减排的重要途径之一。结合比较分析法和情景分析法,提出了一种基于长期能源替代规划系统(long-range energy alternatives planning,LEAP)模型的电力需求侧碳减排潜力分析模型。从经济增长、政府产业激励政策、技术进步、人口增长率、人均生活用电角度出发,设计3类7种电力行业节能减排情景,并从碳排放增长率、碳排放增长贡献率等角度,对各种情景进行综合评价。研究发现在情景A、B、C下,2010—2030年和2030—2050年期间,我国电力行业碳排放增长率分别为2.78%、3.21%、3.64%和0.69%、1.09%、1.51%。在情景B、G下,2030—2050年居民生活用电碳排放量对电力行业碳排放增长的平均贡献率分别为21.71%、45.36%。结果显示未来居民生活用电将是影响我国电力行业碳排放的主要因素;第三产业用电的快速增长,将是我国未来电力行业碳排放增加的重要因素之一。Reducing the energy consumption of power demand side is one important way for the energy saving and emission reduction of power industry. This paper put forward a simulation analysis and evaluation model for the carbon emission reduction potential of power demand side, based on LEAP （ long-range energy alternatives planning） model and combined with the comparative analysis and scene analysis method. In the view of economic growth, industrial incentive policy, technological progress, population growth and per capita electricity consumption, 7 scenarios were designed and classified to 3 categories. This paper comprehensively analyzed and evaluated different scenarios from the angle of carbon emission growth rate and the contribute rate to carbon emission growth. The results show that from 2010 to 2030, the carbon emission in electric power industry increases 2. 78%, 3. 21% and 3.64% respectively; from 2030 to 2050, the carbon emission in electric power industry increases 0. 69%, 1.09% and 1.51% respectively. During 2030 and 2050, the carbon emissions from resident living power will averagely occupy 21.71% and 45.36% of the new increased carbon emission of power industry. It can be concluded that the residents living power will be the main factor to the increase of carbon emission, and the rapid growth of tertiary industry electricity will be one of the important factors to the carbon emission increase of future power industry in China

关 键 词：电力行业 节能减排 LEAP模型 

分 类 号：TM61[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F206[经济管理—国民经济]