考虑新能源并网的能源结构与电源结构多情景优化模型  

Scenario Optimization Model for Energy and Power Structure Considering New Energy Grid

作　　者：何洋[1] 李欢欢[2] 尚金成[1] 谭忠富[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南电网电力交易中心,郑州市450052 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市102206

出　　处：《电力建设》2014年第7期26-33,共8页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71071053;71273090)

摘　　要：为综合分析新能源发电并网对我国能源结构与电源结构的影响,将最小化发电成本与污染物排放量作为规划目标函数,建立了新能源与能源结构优化模型。该模型选取一次能源消费量和年新增发电装机量为决策变量,从能源供需平衡、能源消费量、电力供需平衡、电力消费与需求量、装机容量与增长率等多方面入手构建约束条件。通过测算参考情景、能源安全情景和低碳发展情景下我国最优能源结构与新能源发展规模、装机容量和建设时序,对比分析了不同情景下的发电成本效益,并对一次能源消费总量和非化石能源消费比例进行了敏感性分析。分析结果显示,在污染税、碳税的支持下,新能源开发利用规模越大,资源环境效益越大,系统运行成本及能源对外依存度越低。此外,减少化石能源的消费比重,有利于降低能源系统运行成本。To comprehensively analyze the influence of new energy grid on the energy structure and power structure in China, taking the minimum power generation costs and pollutant emissions as the planning objective functions, this paper constructed an optimization model for new energy and power structure. This model selected the amount of primary energy consumption and new annual generating capacity as the decision variables, and constructed the constraint conditions from many aspects, such as the balance of energy supply and demand, the energy consumption, the balance of power supply and demand, the power consumption and demand, installed capacity and growth rate, etc. Through measuring the optimal energy structure and the scale of new energy development, installed capacity and construction sequence in reference scenario, energy security scenario or low carbon development scenario in China, this paper comparatively analyzed and compared the cost - effectiveness in three scenarios. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out for the total primary energy consumption and the proportion of non - fossil energy consumption. The results show that, the greater the development and utilization of new energy scale are, the greater the resources and environmental benefits are, and the less the operation cost and the degree of dependence on foreign energy are. In addition, reducing the fossil energy consumption can be beneficial to reduce the operation cost of energy system

关 键 词：能源结构 电源结构 能源安全 低碳发展 可再生能源 

分 类 号：TM62[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F206[经济管理—国民经济]