等待心理代价影响下的灾区伤员疏散决策模型研究  

Study on Evacuation Model Considering Psychological Cost of Waiting in Disaster Relief

作　　者：崔璇[1] 丁一[1] 林国龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学物流研究中心,上海201306

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2014年第19期309-314,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71301101)研究团队资助

摘　　要：灾害的突发性、破坏性,救援工作的延后性,救援车辆、物资的限制性会导致灾民在等待转移疏散和治疗的过程中产生一定的负面心理,在应急救援疏散中考虑受灾区域人们的心理因素是必要且实际的。将多属性效用决策基础理论和行为科学理论融入应急疏散问题的研究中,对灾民的等待心理代价进行分析,提出等待心理代价测度函数。建立了将受灾源点人群分类的,以最小化疏散时间、疏散成本和等待心理代价为目标的混合整数规划模型,运用CPLEX软件求解,最后的算例分析验证了模型的正确性。The abruptness and destructiveness of the disaster,delay of the rescue,restriction of rescue vehicles and supplies,all of these factors would bring some negative psychology to disaster victims when they waited for removal or medical treatment.Considering people＇ s psychological factors is necessary and practical.Basic theory of multi-attribute utility decision and behavior science theory was integrated into the study of emergency evacuation,psychological cost of waiting was analyzed and a measure function of psychological cost of waiting was proposed.A mixed integer programming model which people in disaster source point were classified was built and the object was to minimize the evacuation time,cost and psychological cost of waiting.CPLEX software was used to solve the problem and numerical case analysis verified the validity of the model.

关 键 词：应急疏散 等待心理代价 多属性效用 多目标混合整数规划 CPLEX 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]