我国出口信用保险对出口贸易的促进作用研究——基于引力模型的多层次、多方式实证分析  

A Study on the Export Credit Insurance's Support on China's Exports—A Multi-level,Multi-method Empirical Analysis based on the Gravity Model

作　　者：王国军[1] 王德宝[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京100029

出　　处：《保险研究》2014年第6期63-72,共10页Insurance Studies

摘　　要：2013年我国成为世界第一货物贸易大国，当年出口信用保险保额超过3000亿美元，占出口额的比重达到14．8％，但出口信用保险对出口贸易的作用究竟如何？采用2002—2013年我国外贸出口额、8个出口行业和出口到84个国家（地区）的贸易额，以及同期出口信用保险数据作为样本，在扩展引力模型的框架下，从多个层次、用多种方式研究了出口信用保险与我国外贸出口的关系。实证结果表明，出口信用保险在增加出口、推动出口市场多元化、支持有关出口行业发展等方面有较为显著的促进作用；对出口到风险较高的新兴市场国家和地区，以及船舶、机电产品等具有较高外部融资需求行业的杠杆作用更为明显；此外，在应对2008年国际金融危机中表现出一定的“逆周期”效应。China became the largest exporter in the world in 2013, with its export credit insurance exceeding USD300 billion,14. 8% of the total exports. Then what are the impacts of export credit insurance on exports of China？ Using the data of China＇s foreign exports,the trade volume of 8 export industries and their exports to 84 coun tries （regions） from 2002 to 2013, as well as export credit insurance over the same period,this paper studied their relationship through a multi-level, multi-method empirical analysis based on the expanded gravity model. The empirical results showed that the export credit insurance had a significant role in increasing exports, promoting the diversification of export markets and supporting the development of export-oriented industries ; its leverage effects on exports to riskier emerging market countries and regions, and on industries with higher external financing needs such as shipbuilding, mechanical and electrical products were even more obvious. Besides, export credit insurance showed some ＂counter-cyclical＂ effects in response to the international financial crisis in 2008.

关 键 词：出口信用保险 引力模型 交互效应 

分 类 号：F840.6[经济管理—保险]