基于灰色关联理论和距离协同模型的区域协同发展评价方法及实证  

Evaluation method and empirical research of regional synergetic development degree based on grey relational theory and distance collaborative model

作　　者：李海东[1] 王帅[1] 刘阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2014年第7期1749-1755,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：2012年安徽省哲学社会科学项目(12020503033);2012年安徽省公共安全产业的技术创新体系构建研究(12020503033)

摘　　要：对区域协同发展程度进行评价是有效促进区域协同发展的前提和指导.在分析现有研究现状,总结了定量研究两类思想的基础上,论文结合TOPSIS思想和灰色关联理论对距离协同模型进行改进,构建了新的区域协同发展程度评价方法.该方法引入理想规划值,运用相对距离比来衡量区域系统发展度;运用各个子系统间的灰色关联度来确定子系统间的拉动因子,进而得出理想发展度和协同度,弥补了距离协同模型的两处不足.利用此方法对皖江城市带的协同发展进行了实证分析,实证结果表明皖江城市带的整体协同发展度呈上升趋势,但程度较低,发展度远远低于协同度;经济子系统对其它子系统有显著拉动作用,同时是皖江区域发展中的瓶颈因素;承接产业转移对皖江区域的协同发展有显著促进作用.To evaluate the degree of regional synergetic promote regional co-development. Based on the analysis of existing research status and summarizingtwo kinds of quantitative research ideas, this paper makes an improvement to distance collaborative modelcombined with TOPSIS idea and grey relational theory. The ideal planning value is introduced in theimproved model, and relative distance rate is used to measure the development degree of regional system.Grey comprehensive relational degree is used to measure the pull factors of subsystems, then ideal de-velopment degree and synergy degree are obtained. In doing so, two shortages of distance collaborativemodel are conquered by the improved model. Specially, by using this model, an empirical research aboutthe Wanjiang urban belt is achieved. The empirical result shows that the synergetic development degreeof Wanjiang urban belt is on the rise, but still at a low level, and the development degree is much lowerthan synergy degree. Economic subsystem plays a significant role in boosting other subsystems, is alsothe bottleneck factor. Undertaking industrial transfer significantly promotes the synergetic development of Wanjiang urban belt.

关 键 词：协同发展 灰色关联理论 距离协同模型 皖江城市带 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]