重庆农村地区雷电灾害时间分布规律及重灾年份预测  

Temporal Distribution and Trend Prediction of Lightning Disaster of Country in Chongqing

作　　者：秦健[1] 陈宏[1] 陈闯[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆市防雷中心/重庆市雷电灾害鉴定与防御工程技术研究中心,重庆401147

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2014年第20期249-254,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：重庆市科技平台与基地建设(cstc2013pt-gc00001)

摘　　要：重庆农村地区雷电灾害严重，每年都会造成较大的人员伤亡和财产损失。通过分析1998-2012年雷电灾害时间分布规律，运用灰色系统理论建模方法，建立了雷电灾害重灾年份灰色灾变GM（1，1）预测模型，对全市农村地区雷电灾害趋势进行了预测。预测结果表明，未来20年将出现4～5个重灾年份，特别是2021年将是雷灾损失非常严重的年份，为政府部门制订防雷减灾规划和对策提供了科学依据，将有助于减轻雷灾的威胁和危害。Lightning disasters were serious in rural areas in Chongqing, which made greater casualties and property loss every year. By analyzing the time distribution rule of lightning disasters from 1998 to 2012 and using the grey system theory modeling method, the grey cataclysm GM （1,1） prediction model of disastrous year was established to predict the lightning disaster trend in rural areas in Chongqing. The prediction result showed that： in the future 20 years, especially the year of 2021, it would be 4 to 5 disastrous years. The researches offered the scientific basis to the government sectors to make out the lightning protection and disaster mitigation plans and countermeasures, and contribute to reduce the threat and harm of lightning disasters.

关 键 词：农村 雷电灾害 异常指数 时间分布 灾变预测 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]