叶尔羌河上游不同流域夏季气候和径流变化研究  

Study of the changes in summer climate and runoff in two upper streams of the Yarkant River

作　　者：陈昱凝 胡林金 颜伟[1,2] 张明煊 刘景时[1] 德吉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]新疆喀什水文水资源勘测局,新疆喀什844000

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2014年第3期678-684,共7页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2007 CB411503);中国科学院重大方向项目(KZCX2-YW-310);科技部攻关项目(2006FY110200)资助

摘　　要：叶尔羌河是以冰雪补给为主的河流,径流的变化主要受气温和降水的影响,其中,气温起主导作用.基于1972-2011年近40 a的气温降水和径流的实测资料,分析叶尔羌河上游不同流域地区夏季气温、降水、蒸发以及径流的变化特征及相关性.结果表明:库鲁克栏杆站夏季降水显著增加,蒸发减少,其余要素没有变化趋势;后20 a(1992-2011年)较之前20 a(1972-1991年)气温、降水和径流的变化分别为-0.6℃、40%、4%,径流的增加是春季融雪增多、降水增大、蒸发减少和溃决洪水补充的结果.塔什库尔干站夏季各要素均没有变化趋势,后20 a较之前20 a气温、降水和径流的变化分别为0.4℃、27%、20%,径流的增加主要是由气温增加引起的,降水的增加补充一部分径流.The water supply to the Yarkant River is mainly from snow and ice meltwater, which is controlled mainly by air temperature and precipitation, dominantly the air temperature. Based on the measured monthly data of air temperature, precipitation and runoff from 1972 to 2011, the changing trends of climate and meltwater and the correlation between them in two upstream basins of the Yarkant River were analyzed. It is found that summer precipitation increased and evaporation decreased, but other factors were stationary at the Langan Station; as compared with those in the first 20 years （ 1972 - 1991 ）, air temperature, precipitation and runoff in the second 20 years （1992-2011） decreased 0.6 ℃, increased 40% and 4%, respectively, at Langan Station. The increase of runoff was caused by increasing air temperature in spring, which led to increasing snowmelt water and decreasing evaporation, along with GLOFs frequently occurring in summer. Temperature, precipitation, evaporation and runoff at Taxkorgan Station had no distinct variation in summer. As compared with those in the first 20 years, air temperature, precipitation and runoff in the second 20 years increased 0.4 ℃, 27% and 20%, respectively.

关 键 词：径流深 气候 Mann-Kendall趋势检验 线性回归 叶尔羌河上游 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学]