最优货币区视角下的欧元区投资效应内生性研究  

Research on the Endogeneity of Euro Zone Investment Effect from the Perspective of Optimal Currency Area

作　　者：蔡彤娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2014年第8期44-51,共8页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(11&ZD007);国家社科基金青年项目(13CJL042);教育部人文社科研究项目(12YJC790109);对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院青年项目资助

摘　　要：欧债危机的爆发再度引发人们对欧元区是不是一个"最优货币区"以及最优货币区能否"内生"的思考与争论。本文基于欧元区主要成员国2000-2012年的横向数据,检验欧元区的经济增长同步性和投资效应内生性。结果表明:(1)欧元区的经济增长同步性在观测期内有所下降。(2)成员国对内直接投资比重每增加1%,成员国与欧元区GDP增长相关程度就增加0.02%。投资效应的内生性并不明显。在此基础上对内生性假说和专业化假说的内在逻辑与冲突进行辨析,对最优货币区理论进行阶段性反思。The European debt crisis once again initiated people to think about and debate that, ＂Is Euro zone an ＇opti-mal currency area＇？＂ and ＂Are optimum currency areas endogenous？ ＂. Based on the horizontal data of 2000-2011 of 11members, we tested the economic growth synchronization and investment effect endogeneity of the Euro zone. The resultsshowed that： （1） economic growth synchronization of the Euro zone decreased during the observation period. （2） when theinternal direct investment of the member states increased by 1%, the correlation degree between their respective GDP growthand the overall Euro zone GDP growth will be increased by 0.02%. The endogeneity of investment effect was not obvious. Onthis basis, we analyzed the internal logics and conflicts between the endogeneity hypothesis and the specialization hypothesis,and reflected on the theory of optimum currency areas periodically.

关 键 词：欧元区 最优货币区 内生性假说 专业化假说 投资效应内生性 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]