老龄化的标准研究  

Study on Standard of Population Aging

作　　者：王俊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《人口与发展》2014年第3期71-80,共10页Population and Development

基　　金：国家科技部"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目"人口与发展数学模型与综合决策支持系统"(编号:2012BAI40B01)对本文提供的资助

摘　　要：发达国家老龄化程度的持续升高和发展中国家"未富先老"是否意味着这些地区人口年龄结构产生了质的变化?人口年龄结构质变和量变的标准是什么?本文提出了一个动态均衡的"影子人口"的概念。在此基础上提出了人口年龄结构类型的划分标准,并提出了人口年龄结构转变的6阶段模型。模型模拟显示目前世界上所有地区仍然处于成年型阶段,人口年龄结构变化仍属于量变。但持续的低生育水平将使低生育水平地区或国家的人口结构产生质变,成年型阶段面临的老龄化压力只说明了目前的养老保障体系本身就不是建立在均衡人口结构基础之上的可持续体系。延长退休年龄和长期稳定在更替水平是应对未来老龄化的主要措施,但后者更为迫切。Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and＇getting old before getting rich＇in developing countries indicate that fluctuations in the population age structure have produceda qualitative change？ What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change？ Here wepropose a new concept of Shadow Population, then establish a new standard for evaluating popu-lation age structure, finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transitionmodel. The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and thatpopulation ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change. However, sustained low fertilitywill lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population. The current pressure of population ag-ing in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not asustainable system. Gradually raising the retirement age and Long - term stability in replacementfertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future popu-lation ageing in low fertility regions or countries, but the latter is more urgent.

关 键 词：影子人口 动态均衡模型 人口老龄化 人口结构类型 

分 类 号：C92-03[社会学—人口学]