我国社会稳定风险治理的评估框架与方法——基于社会生态系统的“环境—行为”视角  

The Evaluation Framework and Methodology of the Governance System of Social Stability of China: A Perspective from “Environment-Behavior” of the Social Ecological System

作　　者：曹峰[1] 邵东珂[1] 李贺楼[1] 彭宗超[1] 薛澜[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2014年第4期184-200,共17页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：教育部(哲社重大攻关)"社会稳定风险评估与社会矛盾预防研究"(项目编号:11JZD029);北京市哲学社会科学特别委托项目"中国特色世界城市建设与应急管理模式创新研究"(项目编号:13JDJGD010)

摘　　要：维护社会稳定是现代国家治理体系的重要组成部分,而如何对某个地区进行综合性、多因素的社会稳定风险分析是国家治理能力的核心之一。文章认为所谓社会稳定风险实则是社会不稳定的可能性,而社会不稳定从本质上来讲是社会生态系统中个体行为的综合表现,个体行为又是行动者对环境因素的主观认知和价值判断的产物,因此,环境因素构成了社会不稳定行为的基本诱因和必要条件。文章基于社会生态系统的"环境—行为"视角,构建了环境因素和社会不稳定行为之间的因果关系,提出了可能增大社会不稳定事件发生概率的三十六个命题,并通过案例实证分析了其中的关键要素和监测目标,为进行综合性社会稳定风险评估提供了可操作性的方案。Maintaining social stability is an important part of the modern national governance system, while a comprehensive, multi -factor social stability risk analysis is the key to national governance capacity. The so - called social stability risk actually is the possibility for social instability, and social instability in essence is the comprehensive expression of individual behavior in social ecological system, while the behavior of an individual is guided by subjective cognition and value judgment of environmental factors. Environmental factors, therefore, constitute the basic factors and the necessary conditions for behavior leading to social instability. This paper, based on the perspective of ＂environment - behavior＂ within a socio - ecological system, builds the causal rela- tionship between environmental factors and behavior leading to social instability, puts forward thirty - six propo- sitions that may increase social instability probability, analyzes the key elements and the monitoring targets according to the case studies, and provides a practical scheme for comprehensive social stability risk assessment.

关 键 词：社会稳定 风险评估 环境因素 国家治理 

分 类 号：D6[政治法律—政治学]