世界连接CGE模型方法、研制与应用  

Approach,Development and Application of World Linkage CGE Model

作　　者：杨亮[1] 李猛[1] 

机构地区：[1]深圳大学

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2014年第8期102-116,共15页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70941017);国家博士后科学基金"特别资助"项目(2013T60217);广东省高等学校学科与专业建设专项资金科研类项目(2013WYXM0102);广东省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划项目(GD11YYJ04)资助

摘　　要：随着世界经济一体化和空间经济学的日益发展,系统模型方法在国家或区域间经济联动方面的扩展和深化研究正在显现出巨大的应用价值。本文首先开发一个世界连接可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,科学揭示各经济体的运行特征,为定量剖析世界范围内各经济体的经济增长、结构变动方面提供一个系统分析框架:一方面在模型的理论框架中,分析了世界CGE模型各个模块的构建思想和对应的主要方程及其特征;另一方面建立了世界连接社会核算矩阵。然后通过动态模拟分析,检验链接模式和国家间经济联系,以及应用于各经济体政策变化的综合影响评价。Along with rising of spatial economics and the rapid development of global economic integration, the international and inter-country systematic models employed especially in the fields of inter-country economic linkage have been increasingly showing their great value. The paper constructs a world-Linkage CGE model which reflects the size of economies and differences in structures across countries. Make use of a Macroeconomic SAM and inter-country SAM, and to present the recursive dynamic CGE model, to apply it to quantitatively evaluate the effects of different policies options. More importantly, based on related empirical re- search, the model characterizes the main economic relations across countries, such as interregional commodity flow and capital flow, flow. Finally, some simulations are carried out to reveal come from country differences and linkages. The key linkages have significant influences on policy results analysis. labor flow and capital the important effect that show the differences and

关 键 词：可计算一般均衡模型 区域社会核算矩阵 世界连接 政策模拟 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]