服务业能长期促进中国就业增长吗  

Can Service Industry Promote China's Employment Chronically?

作　　者：丁守海[1] 陈秀兰[2] 许珊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院 [2]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2014年第8期127-136,F0003,共11页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目(10XNJ015)的阶段性成果;中国人民大学宏观经济论坛2013年第4期的成果之一

摘　　要：近年来中国出现了经济回调与就业上扬并存的格局,其中服务业发挥了重要作用。本文通过实证分析证明了服务业具有促进就业增长的长效机制:首先,基于鲍莫尔-富克斯假说的检验发现,中国服务业的需求收入弹性大于1,结合当前服务业发展滞后的情况,未来具有广阔的发展潜力。其次,基于修正的就业方程我们发现,服务业就业弹性远高于工业部门,而且具有更强的就业粘性。服务业发展既可以充当国民经济的就业海绵,还可以充当就业的稳定器。中国当前就业压力主要来自于农民工和大学毕业生,要解决好这两个群体的就业问题,既要推动传统服务业的发展,还要加快新兴服务业的升级,二者不可偏废。最后,本文提出了相应的建议。In recent years, there exist both economic callback and employment increase in China, and the service industry plays an important role. Through empirical analysis we prove that the service industry has a long-term mechanism to promote the employment growth. Firstly, based on the Baumol-Fuchs hypothesis test, we find that the income elasticity of demand of Chinese service industry exceeds 1, and Chinese service industry has great development potential due to its inadequate development. Secondly, based on the modified employment equation, we find that the elasticity of employment of service industry is far higher than that of the industrial sector, and service industry has stronger employment stickiness. Service industry can serve as the absorber and stabilizer of employment. Chinese current employment pressure mainly grows out Of migrant workers and college graduates, and to solve the employment problem of the two groups, it is essential to promote both the development of traditional service industry and the upgrading of emerging service industry. At last, this paper proposes corresponding suggestions.

关 键 词：服务业就业 鲍莫尔一富克斯假说 就业弹性 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2