基于SAS统计软件的电梯交通流预测分析  

ELEVATOR TRAFFIC FLOW PREDICTION BASED ON IN SAS SOFTWARE

作　　者：蒋青 许睿颖 吕小兵 万健如[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津鑫宝龙电梯集团有限公司 [2]天津大学

出　　处：《中国电梯》2014年第14期56-59,共4页China Elevator

摘　　要：摘要：为实现电梯的合理选型配置，须对大楼内电梯交通流做出准确预测。为避免传统的预测方法误差率较大的问题．本文对电梯交通流构建了ARIMA预测模型．并结合SAS软件应用．对电梯交通流做出预测。应用预测模型对天津某大厦的电梯交通流数据进行预测．通过比较模型预测值与实测数据验证该预测模型能较准确地预测电梯的交通流。仿真和实验结果验证了该模型的有效性。In order to achieve a reasonable selection of elevator configuration, the elevator traffic flow of buildings must be predicted accurately. This paper builds model ARIMA to fit elevator traffic flow for the purpose of avoiding large error rate. And the prediction is made using ARIMA model in SAS software. The model is used to predict the practical elevator traffic flow data of a building in Tianjin. By comparing the model prediction with the measured data, it can be concluded that the model predicts elevator traffic flow accurately. The validity of the method is testified by simulation and experiment results.

关 键 词：电梯 选型配置 交通流量预测 统计分析 

分 类 号：TU857[建筑科学]